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September 2, 2011 

FREE Registration for the Futures and FOREX Expo in Las Vegas September 22nd through 24th.  DeCarley's Carley Garner will be speaking on currency trading and hosting a book signing at the Futures Press booth!  

No jobs, no buyers of stock index futures

Buyers went on strike after a massive two-week rally that likely forced most of bears to run for cover...just before reversing.  This morning's dismal jobs numbers, or maybe lack of numbers, triggered a wave of liquidation ahead of an uncertain and long weekend. 

Specifically, the U.S. economy added NO jobs last month to post the worst results in 11 months and the first time since 1945 that we've seen a flat-line.  Although zero is better than a negative reading it was well below expectations and is certainly a thorn in the side of the bulls. 

Yesterday's failure at 1230 was a bit of a clue as to how today might go, but when we mentioned the S&P could pull  back as low as 1170 we weren't counting on in happening today.  Although, looking back we should have guessed it...after all, holiday weekend, political chaos and a lack of confidence combined together will always trump fundamentals. 

It is clear that the economy has hit a rough patch, and we highly doubt the recovery will be swift...but we also feel like many of the days issues have been given a bit too much credence.  Nonetheless, emotional trade can prolong agony for long periods of time and history suggests we could get a full retest of the lows before things begin looking rosy on Wall Street again. 

Our charts point toward 1170 being the "make or break" level and this leaves us relatively neutral and waiting for clearer waters next week.  The way we see it, the bulls have a slight edge on Monday due to near-term technical support and possible optimism over the President's job plan (although we feel any optimism regarding a too little, too late plan will be unfounded).  Also, if Tuesday comes around and it turns out to have been a tame three days off, investors might have had enough time to cool their heads and get back into the saddle. 

If you are trading the September S&P, look for near-term support near 1166, 1144 and then 1109.  Resistance on the way up will be 1189 and 1206.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data.  However, market analysis and commentary does.  Charts provided by Track 'n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: An e-mini S&P and e-mini NASDAQ chart are used because they better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations can be applied to either the full-sized S&P or the mini.  Unless otherwise noted, profit and loss will be based on the mini version.

Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

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*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.