|
April 3rd, 2009 Catch me on Facebook! Weak unemployment numbers but no surprises Resilience in the equity markets, an uneventful employment report and end of week position squaring sent bond bulls running for the exits. The long bond settled nearly 2 handles lower on the day with the 10-year note not far behind. Aiding the sell off was positive news out of China that suggested that the economy was showing signs of life. Accordingly, a Chinese equity firm is predicting that the recent Chinese stimulus package is working and could boost growth to as much as 10% next year. This sounds a bit optimistic to me, but if emerging markets can get back on their feet so quickly the rest will follow and demand for safety assets should diminish.
In domestic news, the U.S. government reported that the unemployment rate rose to 8.5% last month and in the process lost 663,000 jobs. The numbers were poor but highly expected and already accounted for in pre-employment report trade. Following yesterday's early morning (so early it was overnight) reversal from significant resistance in the 30-year bond, today's weakness wasn't surprising. Although, we didn't necessarily expect the velocity of the move. As mentioned in yesterday's commentary, we believe that the long bond could return to the 124 level. Similarly, we mentioned that the 10-year note would have to hold above 123'01 to avoid a sweeping sell off to 120'10 and it looks like that is underway. Sorry so short, have a nice weekend ! * Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data. However, market analysis and commentary does.   Treasury Bond and Note Option Trading Recommendations **There is unlimited risk in naked option selling. Flat Treasury Bond and Note Futures Trading Recommendations **There is unlimited risk in trading futures. Flat Eurodollar Futures Trading Recommendations **There is unlimited risk in trading futures. Flat Carley GarnerSenior Analyst / Commodity BrokerDeCarley Tradingcgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com1-866-790-TRADELocal : 702-947-0701 www.CarleyGarnerTrading.comwww.DeCarleyTrading.com *Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely. There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. |
