| Written by Carley Garner | ||||||||||||
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Call | Put | ||
Buy | ![]() | ![]() | Limited Risk |
Sell | ![]() | ![]() | Unlimited Risk |
When to use Options?
Options can be useful in any market environment using option spreads or even simple long or short calls and puts. However, we believe that the best option trading opportunities present themselves during times of extreme prices.
In our opinion, commodity markets coming off of long-term highs or lows typically present traders with an extraordinary prospect. However, it is important to realize that just because a commodity seems "cheap" doesn't mean that it can't go lower. Likewise, while we would never advocate buying (or being bullish with options) a commodity at an all time high, it is always possible that prices can continue higher. If you were trading the 2007/2008 commodity rally, or the 2008 Treasury rally you know exactly what I am talking about.
Whereas price extremes have no boundaries, they don't last forever, eventually supply and demand factors will bring prices back to a more equilibrium state. Accordingly, while caution is warranted at extreme levels it is often a good time to be constructing counter trend trades as it could be one of the most advantageous times in history to be involved in a market. Once again, your personal situation would determine whether an unlimited risk or limited risk strategy should be utilized. Please realize that identifying extreme pricing scenarios is easy, it is much more difficult to predict the timing necessary to convert it into a profitable venture.
In search of a promising commodity option trade, it is important to look at whether or not the options are priced fairly. Option prices fluctuate according to supply and demand in the market. At times, prices become inflated or undervalued relative to theoretical models such as Black and Scholes. For example, during the "crash" of 2008 the value of put options exploded as traders scrambled to buy insurance for their stock portfolios or simply thought that the equity market would go down forever. The increase in option premium was partly due to inflated volatility but increased demand for the instruments had a lot to do with it. Those that chose to purchase put options at inopportune times and at overvalued prices, likely didn't fair very well.
To reiterate, buying options in times of low volatility could prove to be advantageous should the volatility increase sharply. On the other hand, a lack of deviation in the price of the underlying asset will produce lower market volatility and even cheaper option premiums. Once again, pricing is relative and dynamic; "cheap" doesn't mean that it can't get "cheaper".
It has been suggested by several conducted studies, including one by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, that far more options than not expire worthless. Using this assumption, we believe that in many circumstances it may be advantageous to be a net option seller.
For instance, it is possible to construct an option strategy that is affordable without sacrificing the odds of success...but with the convenience comes theoretically unlimited risk. This is easier than it sounds, similar to the way you would borrow money to pay for a house or a car, you can borrow money from the exchange to pay for long option trades. There are an unlimited number of combinations of self-financed trades but they are typically going to involve more short options than long, or at least as much premium collected on the sold options than that paid for the longs. In essence, the money brought in through the sale of the short options goes to pay for the options that are purchased. The result is a relatively close-to-the-money option with little out of pocket expense but theoretically unlimited risk beyond the strike price of the naked short options.
Options are exactly what the name implies, they give traders "options" in that they are capable of being used in nearly every scenario and with variable risk and reward profiles. Too many traders fail to tap the true potential and flexibility of option spreads due to their seemingly complex nature; however, things aren't always as they appear. We strongly believe that you owe it to yourself to overcome your fear of options and open your mind to the possibilities.
*Futures and Options Trade Involves Substantial Risk of Loss and is Not Suitable for All Investors.
Carley Garner
1-866-790-TRADE
cgarner@decarleytrading.com
Carley Garner is the Senior Analyst at DeCarley Trading LLC where she also works as a broker. Her book, "Commodity Options" published by FT Press is now available through all major book outlets. Visit www.DeCarleyTrading.com for your free subscription to Carley's e-newsletters and for details on the services she provides.
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