• Day Trade Futures: The Risk Averse Need not Apply

    Traders are often lured to into the futures markets with a fascination for day trading. The thought of trading leveraged contracts without overnight risk is appealing to many, but underestimated by most. As a retail broker I have had the pleasure, and the pain, of watching day traders attempt to profit through strategies ranging from scalping to "position" intraday trading which spans several hours. Read More
  • Think Outside of the Box: Increase the Odds of Success with Option Selling

    The characteristics of unlimited profit potential and limited risk lure traders to long options but we argue that limited risk doesn't necessarily mean less risk. In fact, it is quite possible that option buying is far riskier than option selling simply due to the probability of success that each strategy faces. Read More
  • It All Makes Cents: Calculating Profit and Loss in Commodity Futures and Options

    One of the most frustrating aspects of trading commodities is getting comfortable with how each contract is quoted, what the point value or multiplier of each contract is and most importantly how to calculate the profit, loss and risk of a trade. Read More
  • Futures Order Types, and Placing Commodity Trades

    Sometimes it is the small details that make the big difference in performance. Familiarity with order types and how to properly place each of them is critical to being a successful trader. Market prices and dynamics are ever-changing, making every second count. Regardless of whether you are trading online or through a broker, knowing the type of order you need to place and placing it accurately is vital. Read More
  • Calculate Currency Futures P&L with Dollars and Sense

    Thanks to the CME; financial institutions, investment managers, corporations and private entrepreneurs have a regulated and centralized forum in which they can manage their risk exposure to changes in currency valuations. Naturally, where there are hedging opportunities there is also room for mass speculation and that is exactly what occurs every Sunday afternoon through Friday at the CME. Read More
  • Stock Index Futures Trading: Before Putting your Money on the LIne, you Should Know the Basics.

    If you are like most people, you work hard for your money and the last thing you want to do is see it evaporate in your e-mini futures trading account. Read More
  • Getting Started in Interest Rate Futures Trading: Calculating P&L

    There are several widely traded contracts in the realm of interest rate futures trading. Each of these futures contracts carry slightly differing market characteristics, and in some cases contract sizes, point values, Read More
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • Carley is a Commodity Broker at DeCarley Trading

    DeCarley Trading strives to offer the highest quality commodity brokerage services at competitive rates.

    Whether you prefer trading self-directed online, or with an experienced futures broker, we are confident DeCarley is capable of exceeding your expectations..

    Read More
  • Trade on an Elite Futures and Options Trading Platform.

    Trade from anywhere! DeCarley Trading offers a suite of over 20 commodity trading platforms..

    Enter futures and options orders, view live quotes, charts and option chains, and monitor account details on a downloaded desktop trading platform, or mobile device.

    Read More
  • Open a Commodity Trading Account Today in Minutes!

    Our online account application makes getting started in commodity trading quick and easy.

    When you feel like you are ready to start trading futures and options, apply for a commodity account with DeCarley Trading with these simple steps.

    Read More
  • Read Carley's Commodity Market Insights each Month in S&C Mag!

    Carley Garner writes a monthly Stocks & Commodities Magazine Column, "Futures for You"

    Carley Garner, commodity broker at DeCarley Trading, answers burning questions on commodity market mechanics, futures trading fundamentals, option trading strategies, etc.

    Read More
  • See Carley's Commodity Market Technical Analysis on CNBC!

    Booyah! Jim Cramer often features DeCarley Trading commentary on Mad Money in the "Off the Charts" segment

    Cramer frequently looks to Carley Garner, a commodity broker at DeCarley Trading, for help in crude oil, gold, natural gas, currencies, Treasuries and the stock market indices.

    Read More
  • Sell Commodity Options without Restrictions!

    Sell options on futures with SPAN minimum margin the way you want to, not the way your broker wants you to.

    We specialize in brokering for short option accounts. Years of experience and networking have enabled us to provide a friendly environment for short option trading.

    Read More
  • Trade Commodities with an Experienced Commodity Broker.

    Trade Futures and Options Self-Directed or Full-Service with Carley Garner and DeCarley Trading

    We enjoy working with clients of all types, sizes, and skill levels. The brokerage firm you trade with DOES make a difference, let us prove it to you!

    Read More
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7

Commodity Options: Trading and Hedging Volatility

Learn to trade commodity options via short option strategies, option spreads, and even outright call and put buying. Read More

A Trader's First Book on Commodities

This best selling book on futures trading takes readers on a crash course through the commodity markets. Read More

Currency Trading in the FOREX and Futures Markets

Carley Garner points out the advantages, and disadvantages of currency speculation in FX, currency futures, and ETFs). Read More
  • 1

What people are saying about Our Futures and Options Trading Books

Carley works tirelessly to create quality commodity trading education, including her three books published by FT Press.
  • A Trader's First Book on Commodities

    “As a 35-year veteran of the CME/CBOT trading floor, I can tell you…those who think they can begin trading commodities without knowing the less talked about topics that Carley discusses in A Trader's First Book on Commodities are sadly mistaken. Anyone who trades their own account, or would like to, should read this book!" Danny RileyPresident, MrTopstep.com
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • 10
  • 11
  • 12
  • 13
  • 14
  • 15

Commodity Options, Bond Futures, Stock Index Futures, e-mini Trading

Option Expiration and holiday rally could start next week

the financial futures report

Holiday futures markets are around the corner

Perhaps the most valuable lesson I've learned in my decade (plus) time as a commodity broker is that holiday markets are not to be reckoned with. Volume is light and trading desks are filled with the second, and third, string staff. As a result, the markets can make dramatic and uncharacteristic moves. An example of this that still stings, is last year's Thanksgiving day crude oil futures collapse. The market was technically closed for the holiday, but the CME decided to let futures trade for an abbreviated session on the morning of Thanksgiving day. As a result of the light volume, and an ill-timed OPEC meeting, crude oil fell roughly $7.00 in single clip. In a nutshell, this is the time of year to keep trading light.

In regards to the S&P and Treasuries, the holidays have an interesting influence on trade. Nearly every year (I'm not exaggerating), we see an end of the year melt-up. It is often a very slow moving grind, but it eventually adds up to a significant move.

More pertinent to the current market; the week of Thanksgiving is statistically highly bullish. In fact, the Stock Trader's Almanac suggests that it might be a good idea to look for weakness prior to Thanksgiving to enter bullish trades, and strength after the holiday to exit. In fact, in the Dow, netting the day before and after Thanksgiving day has combined for only 13 losses in 62 years.

Light trading volume in the ES, melt up

the financial futures report

Where did the ES futures volume go?

At the time this newsletter was being written, volume in the December e-mini S&P was creeping up on the one million mark in contracts traded. This is dramatically lower than the 1.5 to 2.0 million we were starting to get used over the last three or four weeks of trading.

Our theory is that many of the highly leveraged market participants have moved to the sidelines after a rough period of trading. Don't forget, bear markets lure traders to the futures markets like flies on "fertilizer". This is because most speculators believe there is quicker, and bigger, profits to be made during sell-offs than can be made during a bull market phase. Their assumption is true, but it also comes with elevated risks.

The big sell-offs in August and September brought traders to the markets, but the October rally has likely chased them back into hiding (particularly the massive short squeeze seen on Thursday and Friday of last week).

What does this mean going forward? Two things stick out in our minds; first, the e-mini S&P 500 bears will think twice about selling into a market that has burned them (twice). Second, if these traders stay sidelined and volume remains light, the path of least resistance will continue to be higher in the stock market (light volume tends to see melt-up type of trade).

Follow Carley Garner on Twitter

Today's Stock Market Action

1 DOW 17,813.39
+1.20 (0.01%)    
2 S&P 2,088.87
-0.27 (-0.01%)    
3 NASDAQ 5,116.14
+13.33 (0.26%)