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Fed pledge rallies assets of all types |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 25 January 2012 16:09 |
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. January 25, 2012 Click here to sign up for our next Free trading webinar...FOREX Trading Math! Fed pledge rallies assets of all typesAs was WIDELY expected, the Fed refrained from making any interest rate policy changes. In addition, the Central Bank issued an accompanying statement nearly identical to that of the December meeting. However, there was a slight, yet significant, difference...a pledge to extend their forecast for "zilch" interest rates from mid-2013 to late 2014. With economic news seemingly improving, traders were likely a little confused by the extension of aggressive growth policy. Similarly, speculators concluded that although the term QE wasn't used, it (or a similar program such as Operation Twist) was a likely tool to keeping rates at record low levels. As a result, asset priced of all types (including Treasuries) rallied as the Dollar tumbled. Our stats "guy" (Wayne Whaley), tells us that large up sessions on FOMC days are typically followed by consolidation in the coming two session. Our gut tells us, the buyers might be remorseful after they think things through. After all, if the Fed is essentially flooding the market with money to give the illusion of prosperity. We've seen the market's rally on such for years, but with the market technically extended it might be difficult for prices to sustain themselves (yes, we know you've heard that before and the market continues to prove the critics wrong). In yesterday's newsletter we stated: "... the chart suggests there is risk of more rally to the 1326 area. However, fading late day Fed rallies seems to work more often than it doesn't." The high of the day was near our 1326 area, and so we have to lean lower for now in hopes of some sort of pullback. As we've been saying, greedy bears can't make money in this market but for those willing to sell into resistance and lock in a quick profit this range bound slight up-trend has likely been a gold mine. For instance, a normal pullback suggests prices could see 1312 by early tomorrow morning but even the low 1300's can't be ruled out. This market has been trading within an expanding wedge and until it proves otherwise, it has to be respected. If we are wrong about tomorrow, the next resistance is 1332. Don't forget, buy the dips sell the rips! From yesterday but still valid: Our expectations of a pullback haven't come to light, but our support and resistance numbers are working. Like we've been saying, despite the lack of pullback the patient bears selling into resistance areas should be doing well as long as they are willing to buy back near support. Don't forget, catching several small moves is just as good as catching the watershed move if you can do it "over and over". If you are looking for a way to play the downside without jumping in front of the train, you could buy the February NASDAQ mini 2360 puts for about 20 points ($400). Or, you could put a more aggressive spread together. For instance, a trader could buy the 2430 put, sell the 2330 put and sell the 2500 call for total cost of about $200 to $250. Risk above 2500 is unlimited, and profit potential is limited to $2000 minus what you paid to get in...but it gives you 50 points to be wrong.
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 25 January 2012 16:13 |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 25 January 2012 15:59 |
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*All rights reserved. Reproduction or distribution of this newsletter without prior consent is strictly prohibited. January 25, 2012 Click here to sign up for our next Free trading webinar...FOREX Trading Math! QE or not QE It has been a rather wild day, so we'll keep this short and sweet. The Fed didn't announce another round of quantitative easing but they might as well have...pledges to keep rates ridiculously low at least until late 2014 triggered a massive short covering rally in Treasuries across the board. Although, it was the shorter end of the curve that saw the most squeezing action, the 30-year bond was up over 2 handles on the day at one point. However, the same celebration rally in equities quickly prevented bullish traders from getting overly excited. We aren't certain why the Treasury market acted so surprised by the Fed's persistence at lower rates. After all, in yesterday's newsletter we noted that the Fed Fund futures had priced in a slim to none chance of a rate hike in 2012. We didn't mentioned this yesterday, but the odds of a rate hike by the September 2013 meeting were under 20%. In other words, today's news wasn't anything new or unknown. It could take a day or two to work the chaos out of the market but it doesn't "feel" like we'll get much directional trade in the coming session or two. Although we came into the session bullish, today's sharp rally has likely wiped out many of the complacent shorts (which is what we were looking for to happen) and this leaves us neutral. In fact, clients were recommended to sell March bond strangles (137/147) in late afternoon trade. These options only have about 30 days to expiration, and assuming a few days of sideways action should see sharp premium erosion. If you are following our 5-year note synthetic trade, we had recommended offsetting the short futures contract on Monday to lock in a profit of anywhere from $550 to $600 per contract and where holding long June 123.50 calls waiting for the market to rally back. Today we got what we were looking for, so clients were advised to re-sell the 5-year note futures near 123'23. Given the profit on the previous futures venture, the trade is now a freebee (the worst case scenario is a loss of transaction fees and slippage). Those following our short put trade (the March 134's for 29 ticks), we instructed clients to offset the options at a profit of about $250 prior to the Fed announcment this morning. We are overall neutral, but a large dip in the notes to the mid to low 129's and the mid to low 139's in the long bond might intrigue us to be bullish. |
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 25 January 2012 16:07 |
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Webinar: FOREX Trading Math |
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Written by Administrator
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Tuesday, 24 January 2012 10:30 |
FOREX Trading Math: Fractions, Decimals, Quotes and Your Money!When: February 16th, 2012 @ 3:30 pm CentralWhere: OnlineWhat: Getting to know FOREX with "Currency Trading" author, Carley GarnerPerhaps the most intimidating aspect of trading currencies in the FOREX market is the complex mathematics required to calculate profit, loss, and risk. With the convenience of modern trading platforms, the grunt work is done for traders automatically but that doesn't mean traders shouldn't have a full understanding of how the numbers they see on their statements, and in their trading platforms, are derived. Join us to discuss in detail the following topics: - Mechanics of pairs trading
- Calculating pips and profit
- Calculating and understanding margin and leverage
- What does a quote of $1.3225 in the Euro REALLY mean
- The "new" pip...dealing in fractions of a pip within a trading platform
- And more!
DeCarley Trading1-866-790-TRADE(8723)info@decarleytrading.comwww.DeCarleyTrading.com*THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FOREX, FUTURES AND OPTIONS! |
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Last Updated on Tuesday, 24 January 2012 10:32 |
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Free 2012 Futures and Options Trading Outlook |
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Written by Administrator
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Thursday, 05 January 2012 13:22 |
Looking ahead six months, what shifts are foretold in market fundamentals and liquidity? PFGBEST Research will give you succinct analysis that takes the routine blogs and customer communications of their skilled analysts to a new level!- What factors will be most critical to institutional forex traders? Why? Retail FX traders also want to know what insights the professional desk traders at PFGBEST have to offer!
- Energy markets are more volatile, and you need to know what Phil Flynn, one of the best-known energy and commodity commentators in the country, thinks is coming up!
- What is the likelihood that stock indices will follow established trends, or will there be political lashing out (or worsening economic chaos) that will result in volatile breakouts that the charts are not yet indicating?
- Precious metals -- retracing to gather steam or not so much?
- One of the foremost forecasters of USDA grain reports, Tim Hannagan, will advise on changes with U.S. export opportunities (pro and con) plus final tallies on 2011 production, and market psychology going into the New Year.
- Bob Short gives a short report on livestock and meats markets but don't let his brevity fool you. The man is an encyclopedia of current and past conditions that will provide seasonal trading signals NOW.
- On soft commodities, researcher/trader Robin Rosenberg asks and answers bigger questions, since climate, weather and global economic factors are so impactful to Third World producers!
Order your copy of the 2012 Outlook today! DeCarley Trading is an introducing broker for PFG, click here for a description of the relationship. Click here to open a trading account with DeCarley to utilize one of our state of the art trading platforms or an experienced full-service broker. DeCarley Trading1-866-790-TRADE(8723)www.DeCarleyTrading.comwww.ATradersFirstBookonCommodities.cominfo@decarleytrading.com**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options! |
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Swing Trading webinar with ICE Exchange |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 26 October 2011 14:35 |
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Swing Trading - Aggressive price prediction requires unconventional risk management CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS WEBINAR ARCHIVE FOR FREE! The premise behind swing trading is to attempt to exploit the idea that markets spend most of the time range bound, and less of the time re-pricing the range. Specifically, it is the act of aggressively buying or selling a futures contract into areas of predicted support and resistance and is in stark contrast to break-out trading and would likely make the skin of trend-traders crawl. Nonetheless, Paul Tudor Jones once said: "I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms." Although this statement was likely intended to denote long-term highs and lows, perhaps the same theory can be applied to any time frame. Key points: - What is swing trading?
- The U.S. Dollar Index and Russell futures, prime candidates for swing traders?
- Placing stop orders to "limit" loss, or create it?
- Alternative risk management techniques
- Low risk swing trading, is it possible?
- Managing the news
- Using technical analysis in swing trading
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THIS WEBINAR ARCHIVE FOR FREE! Click here to open a trading account with DeCarley to trade with Carley or via one of our state of the art trading platforms. DeCarley Trading www.DeCarleyTrading.com info@decarleytrading.com 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) **THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS! |
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Carley Garner interviewed by Kate Stalter |
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Written by Administrator
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Wednesday, 26 October 2011 14:31 |

Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading was recently interviewed by Kate Stalter, a former Investor's Business Daily columnist and current Real Money author. Listen to what they had to say in these brief clips!
DeCarley Trading 1-866-790-TRADE(8723) info@decarleytrading.com**There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options! Past performance is not indicative of future results!!! |
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 26 October 2011 14:34 |
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